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NOAA Predicts Below-Average Hurricane Season Thanks to El Niño Influence

KVIA•Thursday, May 21, 2026 at 3:21 PM•CNN Newsource

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its initial forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a below-average season largely due to the anticipated effects of El Niño. The forecast estimates between eight and 14 named storms, with three to six expected to become hurricanes, and up to three reaching major hurricane status. This forecast indicates a 55% chance of a below-average season, contrasting with the average of 14 named storms per season. El Niño, characterized by warmer Pacific waters, is expected to influence weather patterns, potentially reducing storm activity. The hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and runs through November 30, with the first tropical storm typically forming around June 20.

Key Details: • Hurricane season starts on June 1 and ends on November 30. • Forecast predicts 8-14 named storms, with 3-6 hurricanes. • El Niño expected to influence the season, likely reducing storm activity. • First tropical storm usually forms around June 20. • No tropical activity expected through the end of May.

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Hurricane Center

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