Study Reveals Delays in Lima Voting Did Not Change Election Outcome

A recent study from Stanford University analyzed the impact of late voting openings during Peru's presidential election, specifically in Lima, where participation dropped significantly. Despite logistical failures on April 12, which caused some polling stations to open hours late, researchers concluded that these delays did not alter the final results or the candidates advancing to the runoff. The study estimated a potential loss of 24,000 to 28,000 votes, but emphasized that these votes would have been distributed among all candidates, not just the former mayor Rafael López Aliaga, who claimed the delays cost him votes. This research highlights the importance of electoral integrity and the potential for narratives of fraud in contexts of low institutional trust.

Key Details: • The study found a 2.5 to 5 percentage point drop in voter participation due to late openings. • López Aliaga was only 21,000 votes behind second-place candidate Roberto Sánchez. • The study suggests that even with better conditions, López Aliaga would not have surpassed Sánchez. • Late openings were noted to potentially create narratives of electoral fraud, impacting public trust.