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El Paso County Sees 5% Drop in Births, Impacting Future Population Trends

El Paso Matters••Robert Moore
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In 2025, El Paso County recorded a 5% decline in births, marking the 15th decrease in the past 20 years, with a total of 10,279 births. This trend is significant as it has led to a projected drop in school enrollment from over 180,000 students a decade ago to potentially below 140,000 by 2031-32. The county's birth rate has plummeted by 24% since 2015, significantly outpacing national trends. Contributing factors include reduced immigration and increased outmigration of young families seeking better opportunities. As the population ages and births decline, El Paso may face challenges in workforce composition and resource demands in the coming decades.

Key Details: • Births in El Paso County fell to 10,279 in 2025, a 5% decrease from 2024. • Projected school enrollment could drop below 140,000 by the 2031-32 school year. • Birth rates in El Paso have declined by 24% from 2015 to 2025, more than double the national rate. • The median age in El Paso is 33, younger than the national median of 39, complicating the birth rate decline. • Natural population growth is expected to decline, with deaths potentially exceeding births by 2040-2050.

immigration demographics birthrate population schoolenrollment

People & Organizations

El Paso CountyTexas Department of State Health ServicesU.S. Census Bureau

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