Cuban Historian Warns of Potential Social Unrest Amid Economic Crisis

Rafael Rojas, a prominent Cuban historian and political analyst, warns that Cuba may face significant social unrest by summer if its economic decline continues, marked by shortages and power outages. He draws parallels to the protests of July 2021, which erupted due to similar grievances. The situation has worsened following a U.S. executive order imposing tariffs on nations supplying oil to Cuba, further straining the island's economy. Rojas highlights the risk of mass migration attempts, especially as Nicaragua has recently restricted entry for Cubans without visas, complicating escape routes. He emphasizes that Cuba's reliance on external subsidies and tourism makes it vulnerable to geopolitical shifts, particularly with the diminishing support from traditional allies like Venezuela and Russia.

Key Details: • Potential for social unrest in Cuba before summer 2024. • July 2021 protests serve as a historical reference for current tensions. • Nicaragua has banned entry for Cubans without visas, limiting migration routes. • Cuba's energy capacity is only about 40% of its consumption needs.