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Global Economic Growth at Risk Due to Ongoing Conflict in Iran

KVIA•Wednesday, June 3, 2026 at 1:32 PM•CNN Newsource

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The OECD has issued a warning that prolonged conflict in Iran could lead to a significant slowdown in global economic growth, potentially mirroring the downturn experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. If energy flow disruptions from the Middle East continue into 2027, growth rates could plummet to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. Such low growth rates are typically seen only during major global recessions. In contrast, a quicker resolution could see growth rates decline to 2.8% in 2026 before rebounding to 3.1% in 2027. The OECD also highlighted concerns over rising fertilizer prices, which could increase wheat prices by 13%, posing a serious threat to food security, especially for vulnerable economies.

Key Details: • Global growth could drop to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 if conflict continues. • A faster resolution may limit growth decline to 2.8% in 2026 and recover to 3.1% in 2027. • Rising fertilizer prices could lead to a 13% increase in wheat prices, impacting food security.

economy iran food-security global-growth oecd

People & Organizations

Middle EastOECDMathias Cormann

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