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Declining Fertility and Immigration Threaten U.S. Economic Growth

KVIA•Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 8:19 AM•Stacker

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The U.S. is facing a significant economic challenge as fertility rates hit a record low of 1.6 in 2024, coupled with a sharp decline in net immigration. This combination is projected to slow labor force growth to 0.4% annually, down from historical rates of over 2%. As a result, economic growth could drop from 3% to 2%, leading to a smaller overall economy and potentially lower interest rates. The implications are profound, affecting national defense, public services, and the sustainability of programs like Social Security. Policymakers may need to consider strategies to boost fertility or immigration to counteract these trends.

Key Details: • U.S. fertility rate reached a low of 1.6 in 2024. • Labor force growth projected at 0.4% annually, down from over 2% in the past. • Economic growth could decline from 3% to 2% as a result. • Population growth is expected to average only 0.6% from 2023 to 2033. • Policymakers may need to consider increasing immigration or fertility rates.

economy immigration fertility national-defense labor-force

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